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Today's Meteor Activity
The 'Today's Meteor Activity' graphic shows the averaged daily Meteor Activity provided by the Radio Meteor Observing Bulletin (RMOB). It's updated every hour. This graphic is free for linking to from your own website by using this link https://mmmonvhf.de/ms/ms.png
UPCOMING METEOR SHOWERS: OCTOBER 2018
Relatively high rates of sporadic meteors and a fairly good shower (with potential surprises on some others) make this period pretty attractive.
At the beginning of the month, have a look to October Camelopardalids. Short video outbursts were first recorded in 2005 and 2006 on October 5-6 (near λsol=193 degs). Estimated ZHR was about 5 hr-1 with peak at λsol=192.58 degs (03h30m UT in 2018). Enhanced activity was then found at the predicted position on 2016 October 5, in radio and video observations. Assuming a long period parent comet, and using the 2005 outburst as reference point, similar activity can be found on 2018 October 6, 02h16m UT (λsol=192.529 degs), so have a check.
After the spectacular Outburst of 2011 (ZHR around 300 hr-1), and a wholly unexpected outburst of faint radio meteors in 2012, Draconids should produce enhanced activity in 2018. Draconids are a periodic shower which produce enhanced activity when the stream's parent comet (21P / Giacobini-Zinner) returns to perihelion (as in 2018 September 10) but sometimes also outside perihelion-return years (like in 1999 for example). The comet's orbital period is currently about 6.6 years. Draconids produced spectacular brief storms in 1933 and 1946, but also strong outbursts in several other years like in 2011.
Maximum times from the recent past have spanned from λsol=195.036 degs to 195.76 degs, equivalent to 2018 October 8, 15h30m UT to October 9, 08h50m UT.
Researcher Mikiya Sato has found an approach of the Earth to the comet's 1953 dust trail, which was slightly disturbed when it approached the Earth in 1985. As a consequence, the dust should be spread somewhat, but could still produce reasonable rates: a ZHR in the range 20-50 hr-1 may be expected on October 9, 00h14m UT (λsol=195.406 degs).
Jeremie Vaubaillon's modelling indicate a possible maximum on October 8 at 23h31m UT instead (λsol=195.374 degs) with ZHR about 15 hr-1.
Mikhail Maslov's modelling found several dust trails, but none of them close enough to cause high rates in 2018. The closest was the 1953 trail (rarified due to previous Earth encounters) that may produce ZHR of 10-15 hr-1 on October 8, 23h34m UT.
Orionids will ensure reasonable rates, although not as good as that detected some years ago. Recent returns (2006-2009) were characterized by strong meteor activity (ZHR up to 70 hr-1 on 2 or 3 consecutive dates). A 12-year periodicity in stronger returns due to Jupiter's influence has been found, although most recent returns seem to have had a separate resonant cause (meteoroids trapped in a resonance region). That suggests the best years were 2008-2010, with a sort of minimum around 2014-2016, so Orionids ZHRs may now slowly increase again; ZHR for 2018 is expected to be about 20-25 hr-1, peaking October 21st.
Orionids often provide several lesser maxima, helping meteor activity remain roughly constant for several consecutive days centered on the main peak. Note that, in 1993 and 1998, a submaximum about as strong as the main peak was detected on Oct. 17-18.
Pay also attention to Taurids. The complex of Southern (STA) and Northern Taurids (NTA) is associated with comet 2P/Encke and sometimes produces an unusual activity of bright-to-fireball class meteors, due to resonance with Jupiter. This enhanced meteoroid activity was named as the "swarm". Please note that recent studies have shown that Taurid swarm exists only in southern branch (STA).
For Radio Observers, the (Theoretical) UT peaks for upcoming showers in October 2018 are as follows:
Active: October 05 - October 06
Maximum: October 06 (λsol= 192.58 degs)
ZHR: Low (5 hr-1)
Active: October 06 - October 10
Maximum: October 09 (λsol= 195.4 degs)
ZHR: Variable - typically low, but may reach storm level
Active: September 10 - November 20
Maximum: October 10 (λsol= 197 degs)
ZHR: Low (5 hr-1)
Active: October 10 - October 18
Maximum: October 11 (λsol= 198 degs)
Active: October 14 - October 27
Maximum: October 18 (λsol= 205 degs)
Active: October 02 - November 07
Maximum: October 21 (λsol= 208 degs)
ZHR: Medium (20 hr-1)
Active: October 19 - October 27
Maximum: October 24 (λsol= 211 degs)