Meteorscatter
PREVIEW of 144 MHz-Activities for the upcomming METEOR-Showers

UPCOMING METEOR SHOWERS: OCTOBER 2014

Relatively high rates of sporadic meteors and a fairly good shower (with potential surprises on some others) make this period pretty attractive.

After the spectacular Outburst of 2011 (ZHR around 300 hr-1), Draconids should not produce unusual activity in 2014. Anyway, it’s worth checking: Draconids are a periodic shower which produce enhanced activity when the stream’s parent comet (21P / Giacobini-Zinner) returns to perihelion (as in 2012 Febraury) but sometimes also outside perihelion-return years (like in 1999 for example). The orbital period is currently about 6.6 years. Draconids produced spectacular brief storms in 1933 and 1946, but also strong outbursts in several other years like in 2011.
Outlying maximum times derived from recent past analysis are spanning from 2014 October 8th, 15h UT to October 9th, 08h UT, with nodal crossing at 23h30m UT on Oct 8th.

Anyway, meteor researcher Jeremie Vaubaillon has suggested the Earth may encounter two Draconids dust trails on October 6th instead, the first from 1900 AD at 19h10m UT (with ZHR up to 30 hr-1 based on 2011 DRA activity), the second from 1907 at 19h53m UT with ZHR around 10 hr-1.
Calculations made by Michail Maslov before 2011 event, indicate that these two trail encounters could happen at 20h10m UT and 20h16m UT instead, with ZHR aound 10-15 hr-1, mostly due to faint meteors.
Moreover, researcher Esko Lyytinen has suggested that activity from a meteor source located near the tail of Draco (RA=165°, DEC=+78°) may be better detectable in 2014, although related ZHR is uncertain. That activity should happen around 02h20m UT to 03h10m UT on October 6th, which has therefore the possibility of being a very interesting meteoric day!


Orionids will ensure reasonable rates, although not as good as that detected some years ago. Recent returns (2006-2009) were characterized by strong meteor activity (ZHR up to 70 hr-1). A 12-year periodicity in stronger returns has been found, although most recent returns seem to have had a separate resonant cause. That suggests the best years were 2008-2010, with a sort of minimum around 2014-2016; ZHR for 2014 is expected to be lower than 20 hr-1, peaking around October 21.
Orionids often provide several lesser maxima, helping meteor activity remain roughly constant for several consecutive days centered on the main peak. Note that, in 1993 and 1998, a submaximum about as strong as the main peak was detected on Oct. 17-18.

Around the end of the month, pay attention to Taurids. The complex of Southern and Northern Taurids is associated with comet 2P/Encke and sometims produces an unusual activity of bright-to-fireball class meteors; anyway note that no unusual activity is predicted for 2014.



For Radio Observers, the (Theoretical) UT peaks for upcoming showers in October 2014 are as follows:

Draconids
Active: October 06 – October 10
Maximum: October 08, 23h30m UT (λsol= 195°4)
ZHR: Variable – typically low, but may reach storm level

Southern Taurids
Active: September 10 – November 20
Maximum: October 10 (λsol= 197°)
ZHR: Low (5 hr-1)

δ-Aurigids
Active: October 10 – October 18
Maximum: October 11 (λsol= 198°)
ZHR: Low

ε- Geminids
Active: October 14 – October 27
Maximum: October 18 (λsol= 205°)
ZHR: Low

Orionids
Active: October 02 – November 07
Maximum: October 21 (λsol= 208°)
ZHR: Medium (18 hr-1)

Leonis Minorids
Active: October 19 – October 27
Maximum: October 24 (λsol= 211°)
ZHR: Low

Northern Taurids
Active: October 20 – December 10
Maximum: November 12 (λsol= 230°)
ZHR: Low (5 hr-1)

(Source: IMO)




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As for past MS-Showers, the VHF-DX-Portal MMMonVHF will produce an up to date MS OVERVIEW concerning the next major Meteor Shower.


MMMonVHF since 2008, is archiving the ACTIVITY-OVERVIEWS related to the past major MS-Shower:

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BCC & GEMINIDS 2008:
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MS-SPRINT & PERSEIDS 2009:
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BCC & GEMINIDS 2009:
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MS-SPRINT & PERSEIDS 2010:
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BCC & GEMINIDS 2010:
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MS-SPRINT & PERSEIDS 2011:
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BCC & GEMINIDS 2011:
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